Evidence Calibration
Grade ABayesian back-testing of convergence scores against known drug outcomes — the critical self-check that separates rigorous research from speculation. For each drug with a known clinical outcome, the platform asks: did our evidence scoring predict the right outcome?
▶How does Calibration Process work?
(1) Outcome collection— gather real-world drug approval/failure data from ClinicalTrials.gov and FDA records. (2) Score comparison— compare each drug’s convergence score against its actual clinical outcome. Approved drugs (nusinersen, risdiplam, onasemnogene) should score high; failed drugs should score low. (3) Bayesian updating— compute posterior probabilities measuring how well evidence mass predicts clinical success. (4) Grade assignment— A (well calibrated) to F (poorly calibrated).
A well-calibrated platform means researchers can trust the convergence scores when evaluating novel, untested targets.
89.8%
Calibration
A
Well Calibrated
141
Outcomes Scored / 202
Calibration Curve
0.0-0.2: n=00.2-0.4: n=00.4-0.6: n=00.6-0.8: n=1330.8-1.0: n=0
Each bin groups drugs by their convergence score. The green line shows actual clinical success rate within that bin. The dashed line is perfect calibration (predicted = actual). Bins with n=0 have no scored outcomes.
Calibration Metrics
—
Separation Score
How well convergence scores separate successful vs failed drugs. Higher = better discrimination.
0.7319
Rank Correlation
Spearman correlation between convergence rank and clinical outcome. >0.3 is meaningful.
100.0%
Prediction Accuracy
Fraction of drugs where convergence score correctly predicted success/failure.
0.1371
Brier Score
Mean squared prediction error. 0 = perfect, 0.25 = random chance. Lower is better.
202
Outcomes Tested
Total drugs with known clinical outcomes used for calibration. More = more reliable.
141
With Convergence
Drugs that have both a clinical outcome AND a computed convergence score.
Baseline comparison: Random classifier ~0.25, our 0.1371 is 45% better than random. Sample size 202 (141 scored). Larger samples increase confidence in calibration results.
Convergence by Outcome Group
| Outcome | Count | Scored | Mean Convergence | Median | Min | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| success | 177 | 133 | 63.0% | 62.9% | 62.9% | 63.2% |
| failure | 5 | 0 | — | — | — | — |
| ongoing | 20 | 8 | 63.0% | 62.9% | 62.9% | 63.2% |
Uncertainty Quantification
Wilson score confidence intervals on target support ratios. Grade A = narrow CI (high certainty), D = wide CI (needs more evidence). CI width reflects evidence volume, source diversity, and claim consistency per target.
C
Platform Grade
38.6%
Mean Certainty
0.270
Mean CI Width
288
Targets Analyzed
23
Grade A
18
Grade B
168
Grade C
79
Grade D
Low certainty -- limited sources or wide CI
Wilson 95% CI bands per target
sorted by certainty score · 288 targets
PFN1
A
92.5%
±0.011
RAC1
A
91.0%
±0.010
SMN2
A
89.2%
±0.051
PAK1
A
88.5%
±0.017
CASP3
A
88.2%
±0.020
LIMK2
A
87.8%
±0.016
PLS3
A
87.3%
±0.040
CFL1
A
86.6%
±0.037
ROCK1
A
86.1%
±0.042
SMN_PROTEIN
A
85.0%
±0.036
RIPK1
A
83.6%
±0.114
RHOA
A
82.0%
±0.099
HTRA2
A
81.9%
±0.129
TARDBP
A
80.9%
±0.174
MAPK_PATHWAY
A
80.2%
±0.129
NMJ_MATURATION
A
79.3%
±0.150
MTOR_PATHWAY
A
79.2%
±0.129
STMN2
A
78.3%
±0.195
TP53
A
78.0%
±0.139
MSTN
A
76.3%
±0.215
UBA1
A
74.6%
±0.195
NEFL
A
74.4%
±0.245
HDAC_PATHWAY
A
73.4%
±0.177
BCL2L1
B
69.3%
±0.217
PFN2
B
67.9%
±0.113
IGF1
B
65.6%
±0.281
COL1A1
B
65.0%
±0.034
NEFH
B
63.4%
±0.397
NOTCH_PATHWAY
B
62.2%
±0.245
BCL2
B
61.1%
±0.329
LDHA
B
59.8%
±0.397
SETX
B
58.6%
±0.102
PTEN
B
58.4%
±0.114
CAST
B
58.1%
±0.097
JNK_PATHWAY
B
57.4%
±0.397
SARM1
B
56.0%
±0.162
RUNX3
B
52.5%
±0.217
WNT_PATHWAY
B
52.0%
±0.329
TMEM41B
B
52.0%
±0.245
CASP9
B
51.3%
±0.195
ACTG1
B
51.1%
±0.195
SLC17A7
C
49.6%
±0.195
FST
C
48.5%
±0.397
ETV1
C
47.6%
±0.195
PAK4
C
47.4%
±0.296
SPATA18
C
45.6%
±0.281
SNRPA
C
42.4%
±0.001
ROCK2
C
42.4%
±0.002
SNRPD1
C
42.3%
±0.002
HIF1A
C
42.2%
±0.003
RIPK3
C
42.2%
±0.003
FUS
C
42.0%
±0.006
CHRNE
C
42.0%
±0.006
GARS
C
41.9%
±0.008
TSC2
C
41.9%
±0.008
PERP_ECL1
C
41.5%
±0.012
HNRNPA1
C
41.4%
±0.013
SRSF1
C
41.4%
±0.014
NRG1
C
41.2%
±0.016
DEPTOR
C
40.9%
±0.020
MTOR
C
40.7%
±0.022
VIM
C
40.6%
±0.024
APOE
C
40.6%
±0.024
ATF3
C
40.6%
±0.024
FXYD6
C
40.6%
±0.024
PPP1R14B
C
40.5%
±0.025
KCNA2
C
39.9%
±0.033
ALDOC
C
39.6%
±0.036
AQP4
C
39.6%
±0.036
BSG
C
39.6%
±0.036
C1QB
C
39.6%
±0.036
C1QC
C
39.6%
±0.036
CNP
C
39.6%
±0.036
COL1A2
C
39.6%
±0.036
COL3A1
C
39.6%
±0.036
CPE
C
39.6%
±0.036
CYBA
C
39.6%
±0.036
FCER1G
C
39.6%
±0.036
HMGB2
C
39.6%
±0.036
IGFBP7
C
39.6%
±0.036
MBP
C
39.6%
±0.036
MT-ND1
C
39.6%
±0.036
PBK
C
39.6%
±0.036
SIRT2
C
39.6%
±0.036
SMN1
C
39.6%
±0.036
SPARCL1
C
39.6%
±0.036
TYROBP
C
39.6%
±0.036
UBE2C
C
39.6%
±0.036
GFRA1
C
39.6%
±0.036
IFITM3
C
39.4%
±0.039
SNRNP70
C
39.1%
±0.042
PMP22
C
38.9%
±0.045
MICU1
C
38.7%
±0.047
PLS3_EF4
C
38.4%
±0.051
LIMK1
C
38.4%
±0.051
NRG1_176_246
C
38.1%
±0.055
HNRNPA2B1
C
37.7%
±0.060
SRGN
C
37.7%
±0.060
MUSK
C
37.6%
±0.061
BDNF
C
37.6%
±0.061
RSPH1
C
37.5%
±0.062
U2AF1
C
37.5%
±0.062
CALB1
C
37.4%
±0.064
CHRNB1
C
37.4%
±0.064
COL13A1
C
37.4%
±0.064
EIF4G1
C
37.4%
±0.064
GFAP
C
37.4%
±0.064
KCNA1
C
37.4%
±0.064
KLF6
C
37.4%
±0.064
RPL19
C
37.4%
±0.064
SPARC
C
37.4%
±0.064
ALAS2
C
37.2%
±0.067
ALOX5AP
C
37.2%
±0.067
BIRC5
C
37.2%
±0.067
CALD1
C
37.2%
±0.067
CD9
C
37.2%
±0.067
CDCA8
C
37.2%
±0.067
CELF4
C
37.2%
±0.067
CLDN5
C
37.2%
±0.067
CRLF1
C
37.2%
±0.067
CRYAB
C
37.2%
±0.067
CXCL12
C
37.2%
±0.067
DCN
C
37.2%
±0.067
DYNLL2
C
37.2%
±0.067
EFNB3
C
37.2%
±0.067
FBXO2
C
37.2%
±0.067
FOS
C
37.2%
±0.067
GDA
C
37.2%
±0.067
GEMIN2
C
37.2%
±0.067
GMFG
C
37.2%
±0.067
HEXB
C
37.2%
±0.067
LGMN
C
37.2%
±0.067
MFAP5
C
37.2%
±0.067
MOBP
C
37.2%
±0.067
MYL9
C
37.2%
±0.067
PDE10A
C
37.2%
±0.067
PLP1
C
37.2%
±0.067
PNLIP
C
37.2%
±0.067
PRSS23
C
37.2%
±0.067
RACK1
C
37.2%
±0.067
RAMP2
C
37.2%
±0.067
RBP4
C
37.2%
±0.067
RPL10
C
37.2%
±0.067
RPL15
C
37.2%
±0.067
RPL8
C
37.2%
±0.067
RPS14
C
37.2%
±0.067
RPS7
C
37.2%
±0.067
RSAD2
C
37.2%
±0.067
S100A6
C
37.2%
±0.067
S100A9
C
37.2%
±0.067
SOX11
C
37.2%
±0.067
TMEM212
C
37.2%
±0.067
TUBB4A
C
37.2%
±0.067
UCP2
C
37.2%
±0.067
VTN
C
37.2%
±0.067
AGRN_LG3
C
37.0%
±0.069
EEF1A2
C
37.0%
±0.069
EGFL7
C
37.0%
±0.069
EGFL8
C
37.0%
±0.069
RGS5
C
37.0%
±0.069
HOPX
C
36.8%
±0.072
PHLDA1
C
36.8%
±0.072
S100B
C
36.8%
±0.072
CTNNA1
C
36.6%
±0.195
DOK7
C
36.6%
±0.073
BCAS1
C
36.5%
±0.074
HNRNPU
C
36.5%
±0.074
LGALS1
C
36.5%
±0.074
S100A8
C
36.5%
±0.074
ZCCHC12
C
36.5%
±0.074
KLF7
C
36.3%
±0.077
MAP1B
C
36.3%
±0.077
MIA
C
36.3%
±0.077
NMJ_AXIS
C
36.3%
±0.077
AQP4_M1
C
36.1%
±0.081
GABRA5
C
36.1%
±0.081
CHAT
C
36.0%
±0.397
CHRNA1
C
36.0%
±0.082
PERP
C
35.8%
±0.083
SMN1_260_294
C
35.8%
±0.084
AGRN
C
35.2%
±0.092
CNTF
C
34.8%
±0.397
DEPTOR_322_409
C
34.8%
±0.097
HIF1A_18_80
C
34.3%
±0.102
KEAP1_KELCH
C
34.3%
±0.102
CHRNA1_ECD
C
34.3%
±0.103
MLKL_4HB
C
34.2%
±0.103
SMN1_90_159
C
33.9%
±0.108
STMN1
C
33.9%
±0.108
GDNF
C
33.9%
±0.108
RAPSN
C
33.7%
±0.110
NFE2L2_NEH2
C
33.4%
±0.114
LRP4
C
33.0%
±0.119
AGRN_1_130
C
32.8%
±0.121
SF3B1
C
32.8%
±0.121
CFL2
C
32.3%
±0.128
OPCML
C
32.1%
±0.129
TP53_363_393
C
32.1%
±0.129
NCALD
C
32.1%
±0.130
ZPR1
C
32.1%
±0.327
CDC42
C
31.4%
±0.397
NFE2L2
C
31.4%
±0.139
U2AF2
C
30.6%
±0.148
EFNA4
C
30.5%
±0.150
GFRA1_146_265
C
30.5%
±0.150
HNRNPA1_15_93
C
30.5%
±0.150
KEAP1
C
30.5%
±0.150
NTRK3_196_282
C
30.5%
±0.150
C1QA
C
30.3%
±0.397
GFRA2_142_263
D
29.5%
±0.162
ROCK1_948_1015
D
29.5%
±0.162
SRSF1_16_90
D
29.5%
±0.162
TARDBP_104_176
D
29.5%
±0.162
TP53_323_356
D
29.5%
±0.162
TUBB3
D
29.5%
±0.163
DOK7_PH
D
29.2%
±0.166
MAPK14
D
28.5%
±0.281
CHRNA1_25_220
D
28.3%
±0.177
FUS_471_526
D
28.3%
±0.177
HNRNPA1_106_184
D
28.3%
±0.177
LRP4_1656_1905
D
28.3%
±0.177
PAK1_74_149
D
28.3%
±0.177
TARDBP_193_262
D
28.3%
±0.177
WASF1_445_559
D
28.3%
±0.177
CASP8
D
28.1%
±0.180
NTRK2
D
27.1%
±0.193
DOK7_45_235
D
26.9%
±0.195
MTOR_2181_2484
D
26.9%
±0.195
PIK3CA_696_1068
D
26.9%
±0.195
RICTOR_1251_1501
D
26.9%
±0.195
RICTOR_1376_1626
D
26.9%
±0.195
EIF4E
D
26.5%
±0.200
GSK3B
D
26.3%
±0.203
IGF1R
D
25.6%
±0.212
JAK2
D
25.4%
±0.214
AGRN_130_300
D
25.1%
±0.217
AGRN_1391_1576
D
25.1%
±0.217
CHRND
D
25.1%
±0.217
HDAC2
D
25.1%
±0.217
LIMK1_165_280
D
25.1%
±0.217
LIMK2_165_280
D
25.1%
±0.217
NTRK2_32_429
D
25.1%
±0.217
PTEN_14_185
D
25.1%
±0.217
PTK2_914_1052
D
25.1%
±0.217
RICTOR_1126_1376
D
25.1%
±0.217
TSC2_876_1126
D
25.1%
±0.217
AGRN_300_490
D
22.9%
±0.245
GFRA3_132_255
D
22.9%
±0.245
IGF1R_973_1281
D
22.9%
±0.245
LIMK2_330_638
D
22.9%
±0.245
MAPKAPK2
D
22.9%
±0.245
MDM2
D
22.9%
±0.245
MTNR1A
D
22.9%
±0.245
MTOR_1382_1982
D
22.9%
±0.245
PKD2L1
D
22.9%
±0.245
RAPTOR_251_501
D
22.9%
±0.245
ROCK2_941_1010
D
22.9%
±0.245
SSH1
D
22.9%
±0.245
TP53_1_62
D
22.9%
±0.245
CALM2
D
20.0%
±0.281
CDK5
D
20.0%
±0.281
CTSB
D
20.0%
±0.281
DOK7_1_100
D
20.0%
±0.281
ERBB4_1_251
D
20.0%
±0.281
ERBB4_626_876
D
20.0%
±0.281
ERBB4_718_985
D
20.0%
±0.281
FYN
D
20.0%
±0.281
LIMK1_330_647
D
20.0%
±0.281
MAPK10
D
20.0%
±0.281
MTOR_1126_1376
D
20.0%
±0.281
MTOR_1626_1876
D
20.0%
±0.281
MTOR_1876_2126
D
20.0%
±0.281
MTOR_2251_2501
D
20.0%
±0.281
MTOR_251_501
D
20.0%
±0.281
MTOR_751_1001
D
20.0%
±0.281
NTRK2_538_807
D
20.0%
±0.281
PIK3CA_517_694
D
20.0%
±0.281
RAPTOR_126_376
D
20.0%
±0.281
RAPTOR_376_626
D
20.0%
±0.281
RAPTOR_626_876
D
20.0%
±0.281
RICTOR_1_500
D
20.0%
±0.281
ROCK1_1100_1354
D
20.0%
±0.281
TSC2_1001_1251
D
20.0%
±0.281
TSC2_126_376
D
20.0%
±0.281
TSC2_1_251
D
20.0%
±0.281
CORO1C
D
13.3%
±0.365
RHEB
D
10.8%
±0.397
GFRA3
D
10.1%
±0.406
bar = 95% CI · tick = point estimate · color = gradecolumns: symbol · grade · CI band (0–1) · certainty · ±½·CI width